Natural Rubber Prices Fluctuated Downward in 2025, Bottom Support Exists in 2026 with a Slight Shift Upward in Price Focus

In 2025, the natural rubber market will feature ample supply, stable but constrained demand, and fluctuating, declining prices.

In 2025, natural rubber prices in China showed a "V-shaped" trend, with an initial surge followed by a significant decline and then a rebound. The price fluctuation was large throughout the year, operating within the range of 13,550 to 17,400 CNY per ton.

At the beginning of the year in January to February, prices peaked due to seasonally tight supply, the start of demand, and strong pricing. Prices started at around 16,890 CNY/ton and quickly surged to the highest price of the year at 17,400 CNY/ton.

From March to May, a downward trend began. Starting in March, factors such as high production in the main producing areas in China, disturbances from macro trade war news, and high inventory levels led to a significant drop in the price of natural rubber. By the end of May, it reached the lowest price of the year at 13,550 CNY/ton, a decrease of 22.31% from the highest point of the year, marking the deepest price decrease for the entire year.

From June to the end of the year, under the influence of weather and geopolitical disturbances, cessation of tapping in China, and downstream stockpiling, the price of natural rubber gradually recovered after hitting a bottom. Although there were minor adjustments during this period, the overall trend was one of fluctuating increases. By the end of the year, the price had risen to around 15,000 CNY per ton, rebounding by approximately 13.80% from the lowest point of the year, though it was still far below the price at the beginning of the year.

Global natural rubber supply growth will be sluggish in 2025, and China’s natural rubber supply will continue to rely heavily on imports.

In 2025, the global natural rubber market will see weak supply growth and a shifting structural landscape. According to the latest report by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production in 2025 is projected at 14.892 million tons, representing a modest year-on-year increase of just 0.5%. Traditional major producers in Southeast Asia—such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia—are generally under pressure: due to factors like aging trees and shifts toward cultivating other crops, output from these established giants is expected to decline. Thailand and China are set to drive growth: Thailand, the world’s largest producer, is forecast to see a 1.2% increase in output, while China’s production is expected to rise by 6%. Emerging producing regions in Africa, led by Côte d'Ivoire, are rapidly gaining momentum and are becoming an important supplementary source of supply. In the long term, the global area dedicated to tapping rubber trees is experiencing negative growth for the first time, and there is a clear trend toward an aging tree population (with the proportion of high-yielding trees steadily declining). This suggests that the potential for future production increases over the next few years will be extremely limited.

In 2025, China's natural rubber market is still mainly driven by imports, with a clear trend toward diversification of import sources. China's dependence on foreign natural rubber is over 80%, and the abundant supply in China is mainly due to a significant increase in import volume. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, ribbed smoked sheet, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) reached 5,871,600 tons, an increase of 16.98% compared to the same period in 2024. Thailand is the largest source of imports, while the import volume from Côte d'Ivoire and other African regions has significantly increased, becoming important emerging sources.

Monthly import volume of natural rubber (including technical grades, latex, smoked sheet rubber, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) in 2025, unit: 10,000 tons.

In 2025, China’s demand for natural rubber will be primarily driven by the Chinese automotive market and tire exports.

On one hand, in 2025, China's automotive market saw steady growth. The production and sales of automobiles in China continued to increase, driving the demand for tires. In the first eight months, passenger vehicle sales grew by 13.6% year-on-year. Additionally, new energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced a surge: NEV sales grew rapidly, and the high-performance tires that come with them increased the demand for high-end natural rubber by more than 20%, becoming an important structural growth point. Furthermore, "trade-in" programs and the promotion of NEVs in rural areas continued to boost related demand.

On the other hand, China's tire exports maintained growth in 2025. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with new pneumatic rubber tires reaching 8.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In 2025, despite pressure in traditional markets like Europe and the United States, tire exports maintained overall growth by tapping into new markets such as the Middle East and Africa. Overall, exports to the EU were strong in the early part of the year but declined later, while exports to the US significantly decreased. The robust demand from the Middle East and Africa became a new growth point.

Overall, in 2025, China's natural rubber demand showed resilience supported by strong exports and robust domestic demand, but the growth potential was constrained by overseas trade barriers and high inventories in China.

2026 Natural Rubber Market Outlook

The future supply of natural rubber in China will face a long-term contraction trend, with short-term supply changes exhibiting some flexibility due to the influence of multiple factors.

Due to factors such as the high proportion (over 40%) of rubber trees over 30 years old and the continuous decline in the proportion of high-yielding trees in some Southeast Asian countries, the main global rubber-producing countries (especially in Southeast Asia) will face long-term structural issues such as a slowdown or even negative growth in the area of rubber trees being tapped and an aging tree population. This determines that the potential for global natural rubber supply growth in 2026 is extremely limited, and the global supply will show a stable but contracting trend. However, increased production in emerging regions (such as Côte d'Ivoire in Africa), weather conditions in the main producing areas, and geopolitical situations (such as the Thai-Cambodian border) will affect the short-term supply release pace.

In 2026, the domestic demand for natural rubber in China will maintain steady growth.

In 2026, China’s demand for natural rubber will still be dominated by tires. First, China released the promotional policy document titled “Notice on Implementing Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Trade-In Programs for Consumer Goods in 2026,” with subsidies concentrated on several key areas including automobiles, home appliances, digital products, and smart devices. As a result, automobile consumption has received certain incentives. Second, new-energy vehicles continue to maintain rapid growth. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told Huxiu that he forecasts China’s overall sales growth rate for new-energy vehicles in 2026 to be around 10%, reaching 14.137 million units (compared to an estimated 12.852 million units in 2025).

The steady growth of the automotive industry drives the steady increase in domestic tire demand. According to industry forecasts, it is expected that the production of all-steel tires will grow by 3-4% in 2026, and the production of semi-steel tires will grow by 5-6%. All-steel tires are mainly used for commercial vehicles and construction machinery, supported by infrastructure investment and logistics transportation needs; semi-steel tires are primarily used for passenger cars, benefiting from consumption upgrades and the development of new energy vehicles in China.

Overall, the demand for natural rubber in China in 2026 continues to grow steadily, driven by the automotive tire sector.

In 2026, the natural rubber market in China will still be influenced by seasonal patterns, substitution, and policy factors. Historically, from the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival of the following year, rubber prices typically experience a rebound due to reduced supply and pre-holiday inventory buildup. Additionally, if synthetic rubber remains at a low price due to weaker raw material (butadiene) costs, it will put substitution pressure on natural rubber prices. Finally, policies such as the EU's "deforestation-free" regulation (EUDR) may increase production costs in the long term.

Overall, the natural rubber market in 2026 will exhibit a “bottom-up and top-down” structure. The “bottom” stems from the long-term, rigid contraction on the supply side, which makes it difficult for prices to fall significantly. The “top,” on the other hand, is constrained by uncertainties on the demand side—particularly in overseas markets—as well as the substitution pressure from synthetic rubbers. In terms of prices, it is expected that natural rubber prices in 2026 will fluctuate between 14,000 and 18,000 CNY per ton.